the Atlantic Hurricane Forecast just got RAISED by EVERYONE mid-season





NOAA & The Weather Channel & Colorado State University & basically everyone just raised their 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season from Active to Really Active in the middle of the Season. That seem kind of odd. Strange days, indeed.

Stay cool.

God bless everyone,

T

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articles

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-01/atlantic-hurricane-outlook-raised-by-colorado-state-forecasters

Colorado State University edged up its seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecast to 15, three more than in an average year.
The new prediction is that six of those storms will become hurricanes and two will grow into major systems with winds of 111 miles (179 kilometers) per hour or more before the season ends Nov. 30. The total includes the four storms that have developed already this year.
“I still think we are looking at a near-average season,” Phil Klotzbach, the forecast’s lead author, said in a telephone interview.

Atlantic storms, among the most powerful on Earth, can exact a high toll in human life, cause billions of dollars in property damage and roil energy and agriculture markets. About 5 percent of U.S. marketed natural gas production comes from the Gulf of Mexico, along with 17 percent of crude oil, Energy Information Administration data show. The Gulf region also is home to more than 45 percent of petroleum-refining capacity and 51 percent of gas processing.
Florida, a frequent target of storms, is the world’s second-largest orange-juice producer, behind Brazil. More than 6.6 million homes with an estimated reconstruction cost of $1.5 trillion lie in vulnerable areas along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, according to the Insurance Information Institute in New York.
Contributing Influences
Klotzbach said the influences contributing to storm development are “a pretty mixed bag.”
Odds are rising that a La Nina, a cooling of the equatorial Pacific, will develop later this year. That can influence weather patterns across the world and make it easier for storms to form in the Atlantic by cutting down on wind shear that can rip storms apart.
To offset La Nina’s influence, air pressure across the basin has been higher than normal through June and at least one model shows those conditions could persist through a large part of the season.
Higher pressures are conducive to storm development, he said. There also are pools of cool water in the northern Atlantic and along the coast of Africa that could retard storm growth.
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration called for 10 to 16 storms across the Atlantic, with four to eight becoming hurricanes. The total fell within the near-normal range, according to Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA administrator.

lightly more active hurricane season appears likely this year, with at least two major hurricanes, under a revised forecast released Thursday by the federal government.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center said we could see five to eight hurricanes, of which two to four could be Category 3 or higher. This category of storm brings winds of at least 111 miles per hour that are capable of causing “devastating” damage, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The previous forecast, released in May, called for four to eight hurricanes, of which one to four could be major ones.

The predicted number of named storms — that is, tropical storms and hurricanes — is 12 to 17, up from 10 to 16 in May.

This would make it the most active season since 2012.

Among the factors favoring a more severe season is the end of El Niño, the periodic, climate-altering warming of the Pacific Ocean off South America. And over the central Atlantic Ocean, there is expected to be weaker vertical wind sheer, the winds that prevent the formation of rotating storm systems.

“We’ve raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center.

Although these factors may produce a more active season, there are also factors in place to prevent the season from becoming extremely active, including stronger wind shear over the Caribbean.

The forecast said chances of seeing a below-normal season have declined from 25 percent to 15 percent.

So far this season, we’ve seen five named storms, including two hurricanes. Neither of the two hurricanes this year, Alex and Earl, were major hurricanes.

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20 thoughts on “the Atlantic Hurricane Forecast just got RAISED by EVERYONE mid-season

  1. I am an atheist bro ,,, your a super hero bro !! Would love to do some weed with you , cuz I could die laughing !,,,,,,,,,,,, bro ! Your to much !

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