this video is from the 4th of September
new video is here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27PZuT9ZYuY
GFS & Euro models are consistently taking Category 3 Hurricane Irma South & West. Houston & South Texas need to pay close attention. Most models expect it to take a hard right turn at Florida but if that doesn’t happen we need to be prepared. So everyone from Mexico to North East Coast needs to have a plan and prepare for the worst.
We’ve got a week to prepare. So let’s work together as one American family and take some extraordinary measures to mitigate loss of life.
God bless everyone
@newTHOR on twitter
Hurricane Irma to track toward US; Residents of East and Gulf coasts urged to prepare now
“This hurricane has the potential to be a major event for the East Coast. It also has the potential to significantly strain FEMA and other governmental resources occurring so quickly on the heels of Harvey,” Evan Myers, expert senior meteorologist and chief operating officer, said.
A landfall in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas is all in the realm of possibilities. Irma could also head into the Gulf of Mexico.
Another scenario still on the table is that Irma curve northward and miss the East Coast entirely. This would still generate large surf and rip currents along the East Coast. However, this scenario is the least likely to occur at this point.
rma is still more than five days from any potential direct U.S. impacts, so there is plenty of time for residents along the East Coast and eastern Gulf Coast to make any standard preparations for hurricane season that haven’t yet been squared away. The Sunday night model runs suggest that the entire Florida peninsula will need to pay very close attention to Irma, but it remains possible that Irma will move further north along the East Coast, or it could enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is strong model support for a north-northwest track once Irma makes its major right turn late in the week. The crucial variables will be how long it takes that turn to occur, how sharp the turn is, and whether Irma’s strength has been dented by interactions with Hispaniola and/or Cuba, as noted above.
Bottom line: It is becoming more likely that Irma will move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and/or Cuba for significant impacts. There is an increasing chance that Irma will strike the U.S. late in the weekend or early next week, quite possibly as a major hurricane. It is still too soon to predict the location or timing of any U.S. landfall with confidence.
New tropical depression possible in the central Atlantic
A tropical wave located at 8 am EDT Monday morning near 10°N, 35°W, about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, was moving west-northwest at 10 – 15 mph. This system was designated 94L by NHC on Monday morning. Satellite images on Monday morning showed the wave had a modest amount of spin, and heavy thunderstorm activity was gradually increasing. Conditions were favorable for development, with moderate wind shear of 15 – 20 knots, SSTs near 28.5°C (83°F), and a moist surrounding atmosphere.
The 0Z Monday operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—all predicted development of this wave by the end of the week, over the central tropical Atlantic. Residents of the Lesser Antilles Islands should keep an eye on this system, though less than 10% of the 70 members of the 0Z Monday GFS and European model ensemble forecasts showed 94L affecting the Lesser Antilles in the long term. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Monday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 30% and 70%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Jose.
Gulf of Mexico disturbance has marginal chance to develop
A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite imagery. SSTs are very warm, but wind shear is moderate to high, 10 – 25 knots. One of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET, developed the system, predicting that it would affect the coast of Mexico between