We;’ve got waves rolling off the African coast that are quickly entering the Atlantic Ocean & are on their way to becoming a depression, a tropical storm & then Hurricanes.
Invest 97-:L & Invest 90L have a very solid chance of becoming full fledged hurricanes that make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico or on the Esst Coast of USA.
We’ve also got the Professional meteorologists warning us of a big impending storm.
Strange days, indeed.
@newTHOR on twitter
nvest 99-L and Invest 90-L Vie to Become Atlantic Basin’s Next Tropical Storm
Dual Disturbances In The Atlantic
We are getting closer to the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and just on time the Atlantic is getting busy.
Two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean may become a tropical depression or storm.
One system poses a Caribbean threat, if it develops.
Two disturbances in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, Invest 99-L and Invest 90-L, are being monitored for potential development into the next tropical storm over the next few days.
These are both behind Fiona, which is succumbing to the twin tropical nemeses of dry air and wind shear far from land in the central Atlantic Ocean.
Atlantic Basin Infrared Satellite Image
The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the orange and red colors.
Invest 99-L: Caribbean Threat?
Invest 99-L is currently a tropical wave — an area of low pressure without a closed, counterclockwise surface circulation — located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Invest 99-L Infrared Satellite Image
The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the orange and red colors. The approximate location of 99-L is circled.
So far, 99-L has had to battle against dry air, similar to Fiona ahead of it. As of Sunday morning, some small thunderstorm clusters had begun to bubble up near the disturbance.
Satellite Image: Where the Dry and Moist Air Is
This satellite image shows the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere’s middle levels. Dry air shows up as dark orange and red. The location of the current system is shown by a white circle.
For a tropical cyclone to form, there needs to be persistent convection near a surface low-pressure circulation.
Sometimes the first system – Fiona in this case – becomes a sacrificial lamb, helping to prime the atmosphere behind it for the next system.
The National Hurricane Center says this system has a medium chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next five days.
For now, a tight consensus of our guidance suggests the disturbance should continue in a general west or west-northwest trajectory across the Atlantic and should reach the Lesser Antilles by the middle of the week.
Regardless of whether it is 99-L, a tropical depression or tropical storm, this system could bring heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday.
Beyond that, it’s possible this system may threaten other parts of the Caribbean, then eventually some portion of the U.S., but it’s simply too soon to determine.
The uncertainty is, in part, due to the fact we don’t yet have a closed circulation with which numerical guidance can use as a starting point. It’s hard to know where you’re going if you don’t know where you are.
(MORE: Most Intense U.S. Landfalls Have Happened in a 17-Day Period)
Secondly, any low center that does form may spend time interacting with land areas of the Caribbean, which may further inhibit development.
There’s a reason some of the world’s best hurricane forecasters at The National Hurricane Center only issue forecasts and outlooks five days out.
To put it bluntly…
Numerical forecast models don’t yet have the sufficient skill to determine the eventual track and intensity of a tropical cyclone that hasn’t even formed yet while it’s still thousands of miles and over a week away.
Keep that important point in mind if you see any social media posts in the days ahead suggesting any landfall more than seven days out. We wrote an example of this overhype two years ago regarding what eventually became Hurricane Cristobal.
(MORE: Where Every U.S. Hurricane Has Hit Since 1985)
Invest 90-L: East Atlantic
Much farther east, an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave just emerged off the west African coast, and has better prospects for development.